Is Sunak In or Out?
Now the snap election is out, is a leadership change in the cards after the expected Tory debacle in the May local elections?
There's been a pretty constant hum in Westminster since Sunak was appointed - will he call an election, will he call an election, will he call an election… And while it started with Starmer his good friends in the Tory party have joined the whisper. It's sweet really. Like reading the Little Engine That Could. I think I can. I think I can. I think I can.
To which people like Andrea Leadsom respond, Rishi Sunak will not call the election just because people are in a "particular mood".
"The people are not yet due a vote." So there. (Leadsom in name and ‘loads-a-lead’ in nature).
And Leadsom’s particular mood is particularly acute. The Deltapoll survey showed support for the Conservatives has slumped by four points in the past week to just 23%, putting them 23 points behind Labour on 46%. Even more worryingly for Tory MPs, backing for Reform UK has also increased to put them on 12%. UKIP 2.0 flaring up like a new Tory wart to scratch?
And just when you thought it could not get much worse a further poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies showed support for the Tories in freefall, with the party slumping to just 21% - their joint-lowest level with the pollster since Sunak became PM, and just seven points ahead of Reform UK.
They've had a pretty consistent 20 point spread with labour since Sunak’s arrival as Dear Leader. Every week at PMQ’s, Starmer starts with something like “pack up your home (oh wait, Greenpeace already did that) and go and waste somebody’s else’s time”.
“Why is the PM so scared to call an election?” the Labour leader said. “He’s so diminished, his entire focus is stopping his MP’s holding the sword of Damocles over his head.”
And well, yes, Keir, easy to say when polls put you up by five points to 47% - 26 points ahead of the Conservatives.
The mood in the Conservative party is bleak, it seems Labour is on course to win a sizeable majority. And Sunak can't change that for love or money. So of course in true Tory fashion there are rumblings of “Let’s change the leader”. It seems to be their favourite game. Kinda like Pin the tail on the Donkey at your toddler’s birthday party.
While the saner elements (looking at you Ben Wallace) of the Tory party think “we can't change leader yet again”, ambition tugs hard at the heart of some MP’s and they can't hide their desire for just a little more.
Penny Mordaunt, Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Johnson (again), oh god, even Truss, again. These names are the Tory long knives and are all being bandied about as possible replacements for an “unelectable” Sunak. Unnamed MPs claim that only a few more letters are needed to be sent to Graham Brady over at the 1922 committee to force a leadership vote. And they’re not the invitation to a garden party kind of letters - and we know how the Tories like a party.
Unknown members are just waiting for the May locals to be over and done to send the last few letters needed. Graham is thinking about moving and not leaving a forwarding address. So many letters. So little time. Nadine do you have the cabal on speed dial?
Nadine Dorries wrote in her book about an unelected cabal of power brokers in the party who determine who gets to be leader and when. She identifies Dougie Smith, a former Tory sex party organizer in the 1990’s (her words) who married the Johnson policy maven Munira Mirza and has been an adviser - PAD - to Cameron, May and Johnson (yes, one after the other, plus ça change) as a ringleader. Dominic Cummings, Darth Vader, himself, fits in there nicely too.
And Dom is no shrinking violet about his ambitions, stating only the other week that his goal is to destroy the current Tory party and then work to prep a new Tory party for a 2028 comeback.
Chutzpah doesn't begin to describe him. Raging, maniacal, Machiavellian…. do I need to go on?
Sunak isn't taking this sitting down though. Two weeks ago at the meeting of the backbench 1922 committee, he told his colleagues to “unite or die” as he stomped his feet up and down and tried to look over the podium he was speaking at. Does he think he’s Patrick Henry doing his Give Me Liberty speech. Wrong country dude. Doesn't Shakespeare or Churchill have a dramatic speech you could riff off. A US revolutionary hero won't work on this crowd. Know your audience.
According to The Times, the PM hit out at a “very small minority” of MPs trying to destabilise his leadership. And guess what? That audience, sooo doesn't care what he said.
Last week he sent the also unelected, Cameron to the 1922 committee in his stead where MP’s kept referring to Lord Dave as Prime Minister and then catching themselves out. But when speaking later a bunch of MP’s (only anonymously) noted how much more impressive and statesmanlike Cameron was compared to Sunak. I believe the phrase “he doesn't speak with spreadsheets” was used. And maybe he can see over the lectern was said as well…
Sunak has until January 2025 to hold the election, but it is widely assumed he will go to the country in October or November. He’s gonna soak every last minute he can out of this PM deal because he knows he won't be seeing that Downing Street apartment after that.
Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, on Tuesday dropped a strong hint October was the target date. So that means November in Santa Monica for Rish! - presumably in a much nicer penthouse.
It’s not hard to find Westminster Tories who believe dumping Sunak is their only chance to avoid wipe out when the country goes to the polls.
“There is no outcome other than total disaster if we don’t change course” is a Tory mantra that's become familiar to the public since Johnson’s fall, Truss’ debacle and now Sunak’s slightly charisma free term.
The PM insists “All Conservatives are united in wanting to deliver a brighter future for our country.” But with the current rate of by-elections and resignations it seems Tory MPs are united in trying to ensure a brighter future for themselves. And they seem more and more convinced that brighter future won't include Rish!. But Rish! will have the last laugh in the California sunshine while Darth Vader er, Dom plays Anthony Gormley and sculpts a new Tory Party for 2028. Lucky us!
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