Russia, Iran lose this hand: Assad is gone
After 14 years of civil war, the Arab Spring has taken its last scalp. And the West is celebrating a Jihadi? takeover - its 1989 all over again.
Bashar al-Assad, the original nepo baby dictator, has seen his control over Syria crumble in less than 3 weeks. Neither Assad's Russian or Iranian allies, nor his many enemies in the west saw it coming. How did a handful of groups, just 6 years ago labelled Islamic terrorists, triumph in Syria's long-running civil war?
Plane trackers, normally watching the flight paths of Taylor Swift or Kim Kardashian, reported on Assad's airplane escaping Damascus, avoiding several attempts to shoot it down and landing in Moscow. The ex-dictator begins his exile presumably hanging out with Edward Snowden at al in some sort of American Enemies Club.
“What does all this mean for Syria? Who are the forces now taking power? How did it all end so suddenly? Oh, and how can Donald Trump claim responsibility?”
Once a French colony, the Independent Syrian Republic achieved independence after WWII while France was dealing with their own occupation, and were formally recognised in 1946. Then, a couple wars, a couple coups, a socialist revolution and voila, the Assads were in power.
The Assad rule in Syria goes back much further than the controversial 24 year rule of Bashar Hafez al-Assad, after he seized power in the 1970s. A man with a penchant for cruelty and a questionable fashion sense. His reign was a blend of paranoia, brutality, and absurd theatrics. He once declared war on pigeons, believing they were spies for a foreign power.
His son, Bashar, inherited his father's love for the absurd and his talent for oppression. He came to power following his father's death, and quickly followed in his footsteps as an electorally popular president of Syria. So popular in fact many of his elections saw turnouts over 100%, with him often securing 95-100% of the vote. which is presumably what we might expect for Trump in his third election in 2028.
As the 21st century dawned, a spark ignited the tinderbox of the Middle East. The Arab Spring, a wave of protests and uprisings, swept across the region. In Syria, the people, tired of decades of tyranny, rose up against the Assad regime. But the regime responded with brutal force, unleashing a torrent of violence that would shatter the nation. The real Bashar emerged.
A motley crew of foreign powers, each with their own sinister agenda, descended upon Syria. Russia, under the leadership of the enigmatic Vladimir Putin, saw an opportunity to reassert its influence in the region. Iran, a long-time ally of the Assad regime, sent troops and weapons to prop up its beleaguered friend.
Turkey, under the leadership of the increasingly authoritarian Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, intervened in the conflict, seeking to expand its influence in northern Syria and weaken the Kurdish forces. The United States, wary of another quagmire in the Middle East, adopted a cautious approach, providing limited support to the Syrian opposition. Israel was constantly irritated by the goings on in Southern Syria.
Yet, almost out of nowhere, just a few weeks ago, Turkish-backed Islamist forces were suddenly appearing in the Northern city of Aleppo. Then they were in Homs. They were exercising undisputed control of these cities. Barely a week or two from the first incursion into Aleppo rebel forces were coming from the South and the North toward Damascus. It looked like the dominoes were toppling more widely after Isreal's war with Hamas.
As the Syrian conflict raged, the Assad regime, once a formidable force, found itself on the brink of collapse. In a desperate bid to cling to power, they resorted to increasingly bizarre tactics. One such attempt involved an extravagant shopping spree, with Bashar and his wife, Asma, splurging on designer goods from Louis Vuitton and Yves Saint Laurent. The rationale behind this peculiar strategy was unclear. Perhaps it was a Kardashian moment - a glitzy attempt to distract the public and boost morale? Proving, as always, that timing is everything.
Meanwhile, the Syrian opposition, led by the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by Turkey and the United States respectively, gained momentum. They employed innovative tactics, such as using drones built by Ukraine and equipped with advanced weaponry, to out maneuver the regime. These drones, customised by the Ukrainians with sleek designs and luxurious finishes, were meant as a slap in the face to the mutual enemy - Russia.
The regime's allies, Russia and Hezbollah (Iran), weary of the endless conflict, large military losses in the field to western allies like Ukraine and Israel, and problems at home began to distance themselves. This strategic shift left the Assad regime isolated and vulnerable.
In the end, the regime's downfall was as absurd as its rise. The once-powerful family, reduced to a caricature of its former self, was forced to flee the country, leaving behind a legacy of destruction and despair. The Syrian people, long-suffering and resilient, emerged from the shadows, ready to rebuild their nation and forge a new future.
Who overthrew the regime? The rebel forces, HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) are Islamist forces who in 2017 were assigned as a terrorist group associated with al-Qaeda by the UK. Now seemingly defacto governors of the nation, they refute their former association with al-Qaeda and ISIS. They promise a tolerant and internationally acceptable country where women can wear any clothes they like. Hopefully not the Afghani kind of women's clothing.
Their new position does not seem to have settled tensions in the region. Israel, determined to fight anyone on their borders is running bombing campaigns throughout Syria, taking out military bases, airfields, equipment, weapon depots and chemical factories. The US is bombing the hell out of ISIS facilities.
Meanwhile Erdogan looks like a winner. He'll get to flex as a key power player within NATO, replacing Russia in Syria and maybe even HTS. Erdogan's proxy state in Syria, anyone? Iran is the clear loser. Assad, who needed Hezbollah with its Iranian arms, is no more. HTS has a Turkish benefactor and Iran is boxed out. It's either marriages made in heaven or another next cluster f**k in the making... At this point, it's anyone's guess.
In the end its everyday Syrians who have the most on the line. In 2011 millions of Syrians were forced to flee their country and went to the west. The new situation might see their return although some are saying it might also displace another 370,00 or so. We can hope that the new government is more tolerant then the past. Although that's not a high bar to clear with torture chambers, prisons and secret detention centres being discovered all over the country since Assad's fall.
And the most magnificent triumph - the world's number 1 person is now claiming direct responsibility for ending Assad's awful reign. Donald J. Trump has decided that his mere election has caused the world's dictators to simply depose themselves in fear. It must be true because he said so on Truth Social in ALLCAPS. One can only imagine the fear these dictators will be feeling after his actual inauguration.
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