The Tories are About to Lose Another By-Election, This Time it Really Matters.
Britain's ruling Conservative party has built up an impressive portfolio of lost election campaigns - this week might be their greatest performance yet.
Since Boris Johnson’s resignation (well, actually since before his resignation) the British ruling party has seemed more like the opposition in waiting. Johnson kicked off a bit of a downward trend on trust among the electorate because (well you know the old story of the scorpion and the frog) he can’t help himself. However, as we head into yet another by-election loss for the Conservatives it is looking like the government may be about to lose worse than ever. Quite an achievement really.
First up, Peter ‘double threat’ Bone was forced to resign after some bullying and sex scandals. It seems he exposed himself to a colleague in a pub bathroom and then hit the guy - proving how strong the beer is? And that was just one of the complaints. And as sure as one act leads to another - at the end of this week we will all have to suffer yet another by-election - this time in sunny Wellingborough.
Like many of the by-elections we’ve experienced over the last half year or so, and we’ve experienced a few, the Tories are defending a large majority of over 18,000 votes and a 40% margin of victory from the previous election. Yet, they are simultaneously predicted to have a cat's chance in hell of retaining the seat. Yep, they’re going to chuck away an 18,000 vote margin. Again…
It seems the seat has become so toxic and the Tories so despondent that not one senior Tory, Sunak included, has given support to the Tory candidate. In fact there almost wasn’t a Tory candidate.
Labour is now the favourite, predicted to continue their recent record by overturning the 18,000 Tory majority, adding another MP to their ranks and burnishing their inevitability. Labour, otherwise known as the government in waiting, at least hasn’t had to disavow this candidate for opposing genocide er Israeli actions in Gaza. Unlike in Rochdale!
However, we are not here to discuss Labour, as much as we may all want to get to know the UK’s presumptive future leaders and their impressive promise to… go back on all their promises. Rather, we’re interested in the party that is looking increasingly likely to steal second place in this by-election. Nope, it’s not the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, or even the bleeding heart eco-socialists the Greens. A new challenger has appeared to the Conservative Party’s right, same as the old challenger, but with a new name: Reform UK.
Formerly the Brexit Party, Reform UK is a hard right (arguably far-right) party originally founded on the principles of getting Brexit done. Today they stand on the principles of stopping immigration and getting Brexit done - but, only better this time. Reform was originally conceived of and created by Nigel Farage, a man who consistently trashes his career, then returning every 5 or so years more popular than ever before. Apparently it's the way he drinks his pint of beer without unforeseen bathroom consequences that does it.
Farage has earned himself a reputation as a UK bogeyman. Previously of UKIP fame, he led the movement of right-wing populism from the sidelines, forming outsider parties intended not to win themselves but to consistently force the Conservative Party to the right. A bit like an activist shareholder / slightly annoying parasite he picks at the hard right of Conservative support and forces the Tories to adopt the principles he runs on. Simples!
It’s proven to be a very successful, mostly digital marketing led tactic that’s earned Farage the unique position of being a longstanding social media influencer of rightward national policy. It's also a lucrative racket as he gets TV shows, lots of unfettered power with almost no accountability and lots of Instagram down-the-pub photo-opp’s - a bit like poor Peter Bone….
For the moment Farage is watching Wellingborough from afar, aware that his political approach is at its best when he is the machinator in the background pulling the levers in ways that only become visible when he wins. Then he pops out of the shadows and takes a bow or a spin on the dance floor with Priti. As a result, currently Reform UK is growing while also being a party without clear leadership.
In the Wellingborough byelection they have largely campaigned on simply being the true Conservatives. Or the Conservatives if they were run by Suella Braverman. Or a conservative choice that isn’t Bone’s live-in partner, who the Tories have put up for the seat.
It’s not political chaos - really!
In fact, it might be overstating the facts to describe Reform UK as doing anything more than benefiting from constant Conservative Party implosion, or missteps. Just hanging around, waiting for the next trip-up. Their decision to nominate Hellen Harrison, Peter Bone’s partner, is embarrassing not just for the party leadership who declined to endorse her, but presumably also for the general party membership. Harrison’s selection probably reflects the fact that nobody else wanted the poisoned chalice of a Tory nomination. As a result, Harrison is pretty unpopular in the constituency causing Conservative ratings in the seat to crumble and ipso facto offering a chance for Reform to pick up those disillusioned right-wing voters. Exhausting really.
However, Sunak and the Conservatives will surely be cognisant of the horrible optics losing to Reform. The party is now polling around 10% nationally, and even a single election where, regardless of context, they defeat the Conservatives on the right, will be a massive coup, and confirmation of their reincarnation on the scene. All while looking a bit like Boris, only more sharply dressed.
Most importantly though, Reform’s policy positions of being a further right-wing version of the Conservatives will wreak havoc upon Rishi Sunak. The PM is obviously suffering some sort of underground civil war inside his party between his own supporters, and those to his right waiting for any chance to be rid of him.
As a result, Sunak should be dreading the numbers that come out of the Northamptonshire seat. Unable to truly campaign there, because of their slightly dodgy candidate, the Conservatives have effectively been left with silently praying that somehow voter force of habit to tick their name is enough to defeat Reform. You know, branding 101. When the Tories come out the other side of this election in second or third place, the end result will be a Conservative embarrassment. That’s an unavoidable reality at this point. Thankfully there are only 2 more by-elections to lose over the next month. Oh, and then a general. What fun…
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