Voters Screaming Out Loud: It's the Year of Big Elections!
From the USA, the UK, Europe to Mexico, India, even Russia(??), 2024 is the year when nearly a third of the globe goes to vote. What are all these voters telling us?
It was a curious coincidence of timing that 2024 happens to be the year that much of the globe, and nearly all of the western world, is holding elections with the potential of significant power changes. And the voters are itching for it.
Two of the world's largest democracies; 1.5 billion people in India and 500 million people in Europe have voted and made their voices heard. And boy have they made a racket. India's citizens defied the polls and defied Modi forcing him into a coalition. And the EU vote could be likened to a magnitude 6.5 earthquake. You know all the dishes broke and the windows are shattered but the buildings haven't lost their foundations… yet.
The EU Parliament Building: Gonna have a lot more people inside that would rather it be torn down soon.
What are these 2 billion people telling us?
I think there are 4 issues our governments better come to grips with and give better answers for if the incumbents on the left or right expect better results in future elections.
Incumbency better not equal complacency, Inflation is not something the electorate is patient about anymore, Immigration is a real issue and the Environment comes second to cost of living issues.
So what happened in the recent elections? While apart from the slightly pre-staged Russian election-avec-Putin, the people took their present leadership to task big time.
First up India. All the polls predicted a huge sweep for Modi. Increasingly authoritarian, increasingly violent toward the nation’s Muslim minority, increasingly belligerent to a free press Modi got a shock surprise when all the votes were counted. A veritable fish slapped the chops. His ‘landslide majority’ turned into a forced coalition with minority parties. His assured independent majority was shattered for the first time and his biggest opposition trounced him in West Bengal.
The people it seems don't like being bossed around. And if you suppress the free press the people will find a way to be heard. The Letts Journal?
Score 1 - incumbents better do better.
Europe is still processing the results of the June 9th election but it’s clear the centre right is holding on by its fingertips. And those same parties will be evaluating what their future holds if this year's trends continue. The largest loser (50 seats to date) from the election is also the outright winner, the Centrists!!
The liberal centre, pro-European Renew group saw the largest loss of 23 seats and the Green/EFA group, who claim to be neither left nor right, saw the loss of roughly 19 seats. The largest group, the pro-European, conservative EPP gained 10 seats, while the social democratic left-wing and further left, anti-NATO block remained roughly the same.
Upset victories were achieved by the eurosceptic right and far-right. The ECR (made up of parties like Georgia Meloni's Brotherhood) and ID (that include parties like Marine Le Pen's National Rally) gained around 13 seats. But as the dust settles a true read of the European election results is tough to make out. Confusion, as always, seems to reign in this somewhat disjointed set of countries…
At first glance it seems voters took the opportunity to make a low-stakes protest vote against the incumbents. The left lost in left run Germany. The centre right lost in France to the hard right nationalists. The hard right lost in hard right run Hungary. Belgium ousted its current goverment.
One of Nigel’s more enthusiastic supporters...
Voters fed up with cost of living issues, high inflation, runaway immigration voted against the parties in power. Macron called national elections making a bet that the French wouldn't vote in the hard right at home. Similar to when Nigel Farage regularly swept up British European election seats but was not capable of securing a seat at the British Parliament.
But, what are the voters protesting???
I’ll say it again: immoveable and unresolved inflation, runaway immigration, incumbent institutionalism. It's a game, set, match of multi-cost of living crises. And until that's resolved the people have no space for environmental issues or sympathy for migrants or belief in the incumbents solutions to the problems be they on the left or right.
They blamed the West's "futile" support of Ukraine against Russia, sky-rocketing energy prices in Europe, the natural excesses of a late-capitalist economic system, immigration and resources diverted to migrants from their own issues.
The theory goes that Muslim refugees and economic migrants have flooded Europe with cheap employment, overwhelmed housing prices, and need to be expelled and repelled from the continent. They also bring some cracking kebab, but apparently it's just not enough.
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It turns out that 4 straight years of existential crisis isn't a popular way to govern for either the Centrists right of Europe or the authoritarian tendencies of Modi. Incumbents have been weighed, measured… and found wanting.
Turns out renewing Europe isn't what Europeans want, they'd like it changed thanks!
It seems the centre right in Europe are tacking to the hard right of Meloni and LePen. Macron is pushing his centre right governments in France with an early vote. The UK seems poised to kick out 15 years of a Tory government for the lefts Labour. And the US is on a razors edge. One day leaning to Biden the next to Trump. One may be going to jail - the other’s son following…
Responding to the success of the further right, the centre-right European People’s Party has decided that the best way to grow their governing base is to court... Georgia Meloni and Fratelli... the group who are quite literally the spiritual descendants of Mussolini Fascisti. Remind me what the EU was set up to ensure would never happen again.
When you try to complete a political execution, next time better finish the job! Or the job might finish you.
It seems the only definitive trend we can truly discern to date is a schooling of the incumbent left or right. The people aren't feeling complacent!
Join us next month (if you dare), and we’ll try to dissect the next set of election results from around the world. Billed to include France and the early reading of July's British election - assuming we don’t disappear into war, famine, or climate collapse before we begin to see what world we will be entering after this epic, blockbuster year of the Elections.
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